Tuesday, November 15, 2005

How much is that surplus in the budget?

How big is Canada's budgetary surplus projection?
Everywhere you turn, you seem to get a different answer.
The Star says it's 13.4 (or is it really 4.5):
Projections included in the economic update showed that the federal government would have been headed for a whopping $13.4 billion surplus this year. But, including $6.6 billion earmarked for new programs and tax cuts today, the Liberals have announced $8.9 billion in new spending, bringing the projected surplus down to $4.5 billion for the current 2005-06 fiscal year.
The Globe and Mail says 11.2:
Federal coffers are overflowing with an $11.2-billion budget surplus— nearly three times more than predicted.
Canadian Press says 13.4 (down to 1.6):
Forecast surplus of $13.4 billion for 2005-06 to be trimmed to $1.6 billion after taking into account tax cuts, energy rebate, new spending and the contingency reserve.
CanWest/Global calls it around 11 (or is it 4.6):
The update projects budget surpluses, including money in the contingency fund and for economic prudence, of $4.6 billion this year, rising to $7.2 billion next year, and then increasing almost steadily to $9.8 billion in 2010-11. This year's surplus would have been about $11 billion were it not for the measures announced in the update.
CBC says 8.2:
One year ago, for example, Goodale's last economic and fiscal update projected that the surplus for 2005-06 would be $500 million, followed by $900 million in 2006-07. Monday's document revised those figures to $8.2 billion and $9.2 billion, respectively.
CTV basically agrees with Canadian Press:
All the new spending and the contingency reserve means that the forecast surplus of $13.4 billion for 2005-06 will be reduced to $1.6 billion.
And the Associated Press chimes in with 11.3:
Finance Minister Ralph Goodale said that due to an $11.3 billion surplus in 2005-06...
All these reports. All these different figures.
What's the deal?
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How much is that surplus in the budget?
The one that you're trying to sell...
How much is that surplus in the budget?
Oh tell us please Mr Goodale.
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UPDATE: Linked at Small Dead Animals. Thanks, Kate.
UPDATE: Also linked at primeminister.ca, which is NOT the one featuring the praises of Paul Martin Jr.