Tuesday, November 15, 2005

How much is that surplus in the budget?

How big is Canada's budgetary surplus projection?
Everywhere you turn, you seem to get a different answer.
The Star says it's 13.4 (or is it really 4.5):
Projections included in the economic update showed that the federal government would have been headed for a whopping $13.4 billion surplus this year. But, including $6.6 billion earmarked for new programs and tax cuts today, the Liberals have announced $8.9 billion in new spending, bringing the projected surplus down to $4.5 billion for the current 2005-06 fiscal year.
The Globe and Mail says 11.2:
Federal coffers are overflowing with an $11.2-billion budget surplus— nearly three times more than predicted.
Canadian Press says 13.4 (down to 1.6):
Forecast surplus of $13.4 billion for 2005-06 to be trimmed to $1.6 billion after taking into account tax cuts, energy rebate, new spending and the contingency reserve.
CanWest/Global calls it around 11 (or is it 4.6):
The update projects budget surpluses, including money in the contingency fund and for economic prudence, of $4.6 billion this year, rising to $7.2 billion next year, and then increasing almost steadily to $9.8 billion in 2010-11. This year's surplus would have been about $11 billion were it not for the measures announced in the update.
CBC says 8.2:
One year ago, for example, Goodale's last economic and fiscal update projected that the surplus for 2005-06 would be $500 million, followed by $900 million in 2006-07. Monday's document revised those figures to $8.2 billion and $9.2 billion, respectively.
CTV basically agrees with Canadian Press:
All the new spending and the contingency reserve means that the forecast surplus of $13.4 billion for 2005-06 will be reduced to $1.6 billion.
And the Associated Press chimes in with 11.3:
Finance Minister Ralph Goodale said that due to an $11.3 billion surplus in 2005-06...
All these reports. All these different figures.
What's the deal?
How much is that surplus in the budget?
The one that you're trying to sell...
How much is that surplus in the budget?
Oh tell us please Mr Goodale.
UPDATE: Linked at Small Dead Animals. Thanks, Kate.
UPDATE: Also linked at primeminister.ca, which is NOT the one featuring the praises of Paul Martin Jr.