Thursday, November 03, 2005

Jack Layton = Mr. Irrelevant?

The Gomery report has been out for a few days now.
And I'm sure someone somewhere has talked about this.
But the wonderful (just ask him) Jack Layton, the leader of Canada's national Socialist party, the NDP, may just have the feeling of Mr. Irrelevant right about now.
It's a matter of mathematics.
Layton doesn't have the numbers to continue to prop up the incorrigibly corrupt Liberal government of Paul Martin Jr., even if he wanted to.
If he has half a brain that works, he has to realize that.
Remember, the vote on the last non-confidence motion back in April was a tie, broken by the Speaker of the House.
Since then, Chuck Cadman (God rest his soul), who voted to keep the government in operation, has died. That's one vote the Libs have to make up.
Since then, also, Layton turfed one of his shadow ministers, Bev Desjarlais of Manitoba, over same-sex marriage. The NDP has a candidate to run in Desjarlais' riding, even though she is likely to run as an independent (and quite possibly win). She owes Layton nothing. Zero. Zip. Nada. She has to be in play as a potential new voter for no confidence.
So, too, does Carolyn Parrish, even though the bastard isn't likely to go that route... unless she really decides to go out of Commons with a bang and put it to Martin Jr.
And there's Pat O'Brien, the Londoner who left the Liberal caucus over SSM. Again, I don't think he's a strong candidate to topple the Martinites, but he has to be considered in play in any no-confidence vote.
Finally, there's Ed Broadbent. The veteran NDPer paired himself with an absent Conservative so he would not have to break party discipline and follow his conscience to topple the Martinites in April. What guarantee is there now... especially with the rumour mill churning tales of Martin-Layton talks of merging the Libs and the NDP... that Broadbent won't bolt? There is none, or not much of one anyway. Again, I don't think it's something I'd wager a lot on, but Broadbent has to be seen as in play.
That's too many variables for a megalomaniacal oligarch like Martin.
So, Jack, your gig is up. You're not going to get your deals, and your party's ratings have been tanking.
Ladies and gentlemen, say a big Canadian hello to Mr. Irrelevant, Jack Layton!